This Just In
Posted on Thursday, July 10th, 2008 | In Current Market News
This just in….demand still stinks.
I hope that anyone who has felt this has been a bear market for a while (a normal one as I think or otherwise) is not surprised that we have made a new closing low for the S&P 500.
I’ve made several comments about how text book the bear market has been starting from rolling over slowly last fall worrying very few people, there being a good sized feel good rally in the spring and the constant questioning if a bottom is in.
We can only hope that the end of the bear and transition into the next bull is just as textbook.
If so, then we might expect to see a turn up met with disbelief a few months from now (maybe Q1 2009?). Things will start to green light when the S&P 500 goes back above its 200 DMA. Regardless of when this occurs, buying stocks at that time will be uncomfortable.
You might be thinking that it would be uncomfortable to buy stocks today so is this a bottom? I’m not worried about the bottom I am looking for where demand gets healthy. I can’t recall hearing about demand for stocks elsewhere but the things I have been writing about all along have focused on health of demand but qualifying this approach that it would not get anyone out at the top or in at the bottom.
The folks on TV seem mostly resigned to the fact that this is a bear market despite a few bottom callers early in the day on Wednesday. I view this as the beginning of a shift in sentiment. Resignation that there is a bear market is a step on the road to skepticism that will invariably come from the mainstream at some point.
I write a lot about this sort of thing because health of demand (the market above or below its 200 DMA) can be easily monitored and acted upon by anyone. Down zero in a bear market is not realistic but down less is possible.
Last 5 posts by Roger Nusbaum
- The Big Picture for the Week of November 15, 2009 - November 14th, 2009
- Process Drilldown - October 23rd, 2009
- Sunday Morning Coffee 10-18-09 - October 18th, 2009
- A Little Followup From This Morning - October 8th, 2009
- Wednesday Roundup - October 7th, 2009
 About Roger Nusbaum (http://randomroger.blogspot.com)
Roger Nusbaum is a portfolio manager with Your Source Financial of Phoenix, and the author of Random Roger's Big Picture Blog, which has been profiled in several top business publications, including Barron's and Forbes. Nusbaum has also been a financial consultant with Morgan Stanley, an investment counselor with Fisher Investments and an institutional equities and options trader with Charles Schwab. He holds a bachelor's degree in economics from San Diego State University |
No recommendations, either expressed or implied, are being made to buy, sell, hold or short any of the mentioned stocks. No legal, tax or accounting advice is expressed or implied. Always contact your attorney, CPA, or tax advisor before acting on any legal or tax issues. StraightStocks.com is not responsible for the content, products, or services of any of the advertisers on this site. StraightStocks.com receives compensation from advertisers on this blog. Services and products referred to herein are trademarks, registered trademarks, servicemarks, and/or registered servicemarks of their respective trademark or servicemark owners.