OPEC: Brace For $170 Oil This Summer!
Source: http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/Issues.aspx?NewsletterEntryId=1915Posted on Saturday, June 28th, 2008 | In Current Market News, Energy Markets, Mexico, Norway, Russia, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Venezuela
Just a few days ago, OPEC President Chakib Khelil told a French television station the awful truth that U.S. consumers don’t want to hear. “I foresee prices probably between $150 and $170 this summer,” Khelil said.
At the same time, Libya announced it may cut production because the market is “oversupplied.” Oil Minister Shokri Ghanem said: “We don’t see any need for more oil. There is plenty of oil in the market.”
Libya pumps about 1.71 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil, out of total OPEC output of 32.12 million bpd. That means Libya could easily take away the 300,000 barrels in new production that the Saudis promised just a week ago.
The Libyans, along with the rest of OPEC, want prices where they are now … or higher. Why? Because they want more money! The Energy Information Administration estimates that higher oil prices will hand OPEC $850 billion in net oil export revenue in 2008, a 26% increase from 2007.
That’s why, in the last year, our “good friends” in the Middle East — Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iran, Kuwait, Iraq and Qatar — curbed their output by 544,000 barrels a day. At the same time, their domestic demand increased by 318,000 barrels a day, so their net exports dropped by 862,000 barrels.
It’s a simple supply/demand squeeze. So are prices going higher? Heck, yeah! How high can they go?
I think we could easily hit $200 a barrel early next year … and $250 by the end of 2009.
The pain at the pump is already wreaking havoc on the U.S. economy and markets. This month, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has hit its lowest levels since September 11, 2006. The Dow has plummeted 9.4% this month, its worst June since an 18% tumble in 1930 during the Great Depression. All 30 companies have posted losses in the month.
Well, if America’s economy is slumping that means gasoline demand will fall and prices will go lower, right? No! Every barrel we don’t use will be snapped up by eager NEW drivers in India and China. Heck, there are at least 6.6 million new car owners hitting the roads in China this year alone. And they’ll be using AT LEAST 45 million barrels of crude — more than enough to make up for the slim demand drop in the U.S.
This isn’t the first time I’ve predicted surging energy prices. In January, for example, I recommended a portfolio of stocks and funds in my oil report, Running on Fumes. Already, those stocks have gone ballistic, delivering rapid and robust gains to investors who followed my recommendations. |
Now add to this plummeting production in Mexico’s giant Cantarell oil field … civil war in oil-rich Nigeria … and other forces, and every indicator I study is still telling me that oil, gasoline and natural gas are headed for the moon … and key energy stocks are about to leave the oil bears licking their wounds.
The good news is you don’t have to sit back passively and watch events unfold. Indeed, you have a historic opportunity to go for windfall profits in the months ahead, as oil prices go to $170 … $200 … and higher.
I count no fewer than nine global triggers that are now turning this energy crisis into a full-fledged energy PANIC …
Energy Panic Trigger#1:
The Saudis couldn’t solve this
crisis if they wanted to …
and they do NOT want to!
Saudi Arabia is the biggest exporter of oil in the world, and it is the only OPEC producer with any significant spare production capacity. It’s also the #2 supplier of U.S. imported oil.
Problem: It supplies mostly the heavy oil that, regardless of any production increases, will have little impact on the market that matters the most for U.S. consumers.
I’m talking about gasoline, which is refined mostly from light crude: And light crude supplies are not only tight; the premiums over heavy crude are soaring to their highest levels of all time.
Most important: The Saudis aren’t motivated to pump enough oil to bring down prices even if they could! Why should they? They’re making money hand over fist — hauling in huge, historic profits — with each new surge in oil prices!
Energy Panic Trigger#2:
The higher oil prices climb,
the more America imports!
Sure, we’ve seen gasoline demand drop a tiny bit as energy prices rise — and some say that the drop in demand will drive prices lower.
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But the facts say something very different:
Look: In 1990, oil was at $23 a barrel. Today, it’s over $140 — a 509% increase.
If the oil bears were right, you’d expect U.S. oil imports to have dropped dramatically — right? But U.S. oil imports are up a staggering 70% since 1990 — even as oil doubled to over $50 per barrel … doubled again to over $100 per barrel … and are trending higher even now, even as oil prices are going ballistic!
Energy Panic Trigger #3:
Massive new oil demand from emerging
markets is now eclipsing U.S. demand!
Last Thursday, China roiled the oil market; announcing it would raise gas and diesel prices by about 46 cents per gallon in order to reduce demand. In a matter of minutes, oil prices skidded lower.
Before you knew it, America’s TV news and finance channels were all over the story. They asked the burning question, “Will higher prices and lower demand in China kill this great bull market in oil?” And they presented a seemingly endless parade of oil bears and stock bulls who almost unanimously proclaimed that oil prices were about to crater.
I hope those expert bears can live with disappointment, because by Friday morning, investors were buying the pullback like crazy and the oil price was already recovering nicely.
Why?
Well for one thing, savvy oil investors know that if anything, this price hike is likely to actually increase demand!
Look: If you were told gas prices were going up 18%, wouldn’t you run out and fill every gas tank you own to beat the price increase? And once prices jumped, wouldn’t you expect more price hikes in the future — and look for opportunities to buy sooner rather than later?
I sure would — and I’ll bet you dollars to donuts that millions of Chinese consumers will, too!
Plus, even if this modest price increase did cause some Chinese drivers to fill up less often, any reduction in demand would be dwarfed by the legions of new vehicles on Chinese assembly lines right now.
China will see AT LEAST 6.6 million new cars, trucks and vans hit their roads this year. And I’m not even counting scooters and motorcycles. Some estimates go as high as 10 million new vehicles hitting Chinese roads in 2008!
Last year, Chinese bought 5.5 million cars, minivans and SUVs plus 3 million commercial vehicles, up from just 1.6 million vehicles sold in 1997. This year alone, sales are expected to grow another 15% to 20%.
And that’s only the tip of the Chinese iceberg: A huge percentage of China’s oil demand comes from its massive manufacturing sector: Companies that make and sell trillions of dollars-worth of Chinese products to the rest of the world.
Since energy represents only a small fraction of most of these companies’ manufacturing costs, it’s highly unlikely that marginally higher prices will reduce their thirst for fuel one iota. In fact, the opposite is more likely the case. With the World Bank recently raising its forecast of Chinese GDP growth for 2008 to 9.8%, China’s industrial sector is likely to consume more fuel than projected this year!
The fact is, this year — 2008 — will be the first year that emerging markets will consume more oil than the U.S.
I’m talking about countries like China, India, Russia, and parts of the Middle East. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), those countries are expected to consume 20.67 million barrels a day this year — more than the United States will.
China is the giant mover and shaker in the energy markets, as its gasoline and diesel demand has soared. But now, India is poised to zoom past China as the world’s fastest-growing car market, with sales of passenger cars in India increasing 12.17% to 1.5 million this past year!
The fact is, this is a massive, global, long-term mega-trend driven by soaring global demand and shrinking global supplies.
Energy Panic Trigger #4:
Production is cratering in not one, but
TWO major oil-exporting countries!
Mexico is our #3 source of imported oil — 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd), or 12.6% of our imports — and the decline in production from its super-giant Cantarell oil field can only be described as catastrophic.
Even as global demand for oil continued to explode last year, Mexico’s oil production fell 5.3% — and then fell faster in the first quarter of this year, by 7.8%.
And what’s worse, Mexico’s crude oil exports dropped even more sharply, down 12.5% to 1.49 million barrels per day in the first quarter!
Worst of all, Mexico’s production crisis is deepening: In April, Mexico’s oil output fell to a nine-year low of 2.8 million barrels a day, mostly because of a decline in the Cantarell field.
Think that’s scary? Consider this: At current rates of decline, Mexico will become a net oil importer by 2016, and maybe sooner, according to Mexico’s Energy Ministry!
And it’s not just Mexico. Venezuela, another big supplier of U.S. imported oil, is hemorrhaging oil production due to the slipshod management by its deluded president, Hugo Chavez.
Result: The combined net oil exports from Venezuela and Mexico to the U.S. dropped by 414,000 bpd in just five months recently: An astounding annual decline rate of 32% a year!
Energy Panic Trigger #5:
Meteorologists’ Red Alert:
Devastating hurricane season ahead
in the oil-rich Gulf of Mexico!
When La Niña is strong, hurricanes are also more powerful than normal. Well, batten down the hatches, because a strong La Niña is expected to last through the summer, delivering worse-than-average storm activity THIS season.
The Gulf of Mexico provides 20% of the natural gas and 30% of the oil produced in the U.S. Some of the oil and gas production knocked out by hurricanes Rita and Katrina in 2005 has never come back. While the industry has worked to harden its platforms and facilities in the Gulf, a monster hurricane could create huge spikes in oil and natural gas prices this summer and fall.
And while offshore platforms have been reinforced since hurricanes wreaked havoc in the Gulf of Mexico’s “Energy Alley,” all it would take is one bad storm in the wrong place to knock out the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP) which supplies 13% of the nation’s oil — not to mention the fleets of U.S. and Mexican rigs in the Gulf of Mexico.
Energy Panic Trigger #6:
The era of cheap, easily
recoverable oil is OVER!
Today, fully half of the world’s oil production comes from less than 120 giant fields. But the majority of these fields are more than a half-century old and some are running on fumes: We’re getting between 4% and 5% less oil out of the world’s existing oilfields every year.
Quite simply, Earth is running out of oil. Prior to the first exploration by man, estimated crude oil reserves on the planet totaled roughly one trillion barrels. Today, about one-third of that oil has been drilled, refined and consumed.
Worse: Even with today’s high-tech drilling methods, only about 35% of the world’s remaining oil reserves can be extracted from the ground — and it costs more to recover than ever before!
Energy Panic Trigger #7:
Peak Oil is dead ahead!
“Peak Oil” is a simple concept with complex — and potentially catastrophic — implications. It means that the world’s oil production is not only peaking, but also that, regardless of how many new wells are drilled, total production will continue to decline.
It’s important to understand that Peak Oil does NOT mean that oil prices have peaked. To the contrary: It means that production has peaked — while demand and prices continue to soar. And frankly, every statistic I study tells me that we are at, or very close to, Peak Oil right now.
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According to government data, the top five oil exporting countries — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iran, United Arab Emirates and Norway — responsible for half of world net oil exports, are using more and more of their own oil. At the same time, their production is flat or falling, driving their exports into an accelerated decline.
Sure enough, according to the U.S. Department of Energy, the volume of petroleum products shipped by the world’s top oil exporters fell 2.5% last year, despite a 57% increase in prices, and the same trend is holding this year.
In other words, it doesn’t matter if we pay more — they just don’t have more oil to give!
As for smaller exporters, as I told you, Mexico, the #3 source of imported crude for the U.S., will hit zero in net exports in just eight years. And Venezuela is leading most other oil exporters down the slippery slope of production cutbacks.
At the same time, Indonesia and Great Britain, both exporting oil as recently as two years ago, are now importing oil, competing with the U.S. for scarce energy resources.
THE BOTTOM LINE: If current trends continue, the top five oil exporters will approach zero net oil exports around 2031!
But you don’t have to wait to see the impact of Peak Oil on oil prices or on the stock of key energy companies. According to a report from CIBC World Markets, soaring internal rates of oil consumption in oil producing nations will cut crude exports by as much as 2.5 million barrels a day by the end of the decade.
That’s about 3% of global oil demand. In fact, that decline is actually more than the total current spare capacity in the oil markets!
Energy Panic Trigger #8:
Peak natural gas is coming, too!
Even as everyone fixates on high oil prices, there is an equally dramatic crisis quietly building in the world of natural gas.
Natural gas production in the U.S. is flat, despite many more wells being drilled. Production in Canada, which supplies over 80% of our imported natgas, has peaked.
America is building facilities to import liquid natural gas (LNG), but with demand rising rapidly in other nations, it remains to be seen if we can import nearly enough. The fact is, U.S. LNG imports dropped a whopping 31% in 2007 as higher-priced markets in Asia and Europe outbid us.
As a result, America’s natural gas reserves are dangerously low. A long, hot summer that pumps up demand for natural gas at power stations could easily drive prices through the roof before the first frost.
By the end of October, America will likely have only 3.1 trillion cubic feet of gas in storage — almost 1 trillion cubic feet below full storage, just as we go into prime heating season: Another important reason why I see much, much higher natural gas prices ahead.
Energy Panic Trigger #9:
Many alternative energy schemes
are nothing more than a pipe dream!
Right now, pretty much every politician on Capitol Hill and every fly-by-night energy entrepreneur on the planet is claiming that ethanol, coal-to-gas, solar, wind, fuel cells and other alternatives are the solution.
Sounds great when you say it fast — right? But the cold, hard truth is, many of these technologies are still in their infancy … they’ll take hundreds of billions of dollars to fully develop … and it will take years — possibly decades — for these technologies to make even a small dent in global demand for oil and natural gas.
My Forecast:
$200 oil … $20 natural gas …
and windfall profits for you
— IF you buy these stocks NOW!
I’m just putting the finishing touches on a new, hot-off-the-presses 57-page white paper to help you harness the next great phase of this energy bull market to the hilt …
Energy Panic — The Next Profit Bonanza gives you the unvarnished truth that almost nobody in Washington, on Wall Street or in the media is telling you …
- The irrefutable reason why even a slowing global economy will still generate enough energy demand to drive prices ever-higher …
- Why Saudi jawboning about how their production increase will lower prices is nothing more than a big, fat lie …
- The reason why political pressure to deplete the U.S. Petroleum Reserve — and even Bush’s demand that Congress allow drilling in Anwar and the Gulf of Mexico — can’t lower energy prices in the near-term …
- Why U.S. crude oil, natural gas and gasoline stockpiles — all of which are already falling off a cliff — are likely to go into absolute freefall later this year …
- The factor that should drive both gasoline and natural gas prices much higher, much faster than crude oil in the months ahead …
- Why I’m convinced that this great bull market in oil and natural gas stocks still has years (and possibly even decades) to run …
- Why I’m crawling out on a limb and publicly forecasting $200 oil and $20 natural gas sooner than almost anyone suspects today …
- Why key energy stocks are likely to soar as much as 100% or even more with each 10% uptick in energy prices …
- And much more!
PLUS, I name seven stocks and three ETFs
I’m counting on to multiply your money
as energy prices continue to soar!
These are hands-down, my ten favorite energy plays now — from large, mainstream companies best positioned to profit from rising energy prices to often overlooked, leading-edge energy firms, AND my three favorite funds to give you broad diversification.
Here is a sneak preview …
Pick #1: A major oil company, little-known in America, that is a partner in some of the biggest oil discoveries in recent memory.
Pick #2: A deepwater driller that is signing big-money, multi-year contracts — with no end in sight to its flood of business.
Pick #3: Another deepwater producer that is an industry bargain and offers incredible upside as it takes risks and strikes the jackpot.
Pick #4: A company that is riding the rising tide of offshore drilling with a fleet of ships.
Pick #5: An unconventional natural gas play that is tapping into a veritable Fort Knox of underground treasure.
Pick #6: The can-do land-based explorer that is riding a gusher of profits.
Pick #7: A company with state-of-the-art, proven technology that can vastly increase the flow of oil from old wells. As the price of crude skyrockets, I think this stock is going to become very popular.
Picks 8, #9 and #10: Three red-hot energy funds. I think these are THE best of the best in the energy arena. Two funds are commodity funds focused on oil and natural gas. The third is a basket of solar stocks that will shine as alternative energy ramps up.
Of course, market conditions are volatile, and because I want to make sure you get the very best recommendations available, I may substitute some picks when I publish this report.
Are profits guaranteed? Of course not. Stock investments are risky by nature. And as with any investment, you CAN lose money. But, I’m convinced each of these is loaded with value and on the verge of blast-off.
You also get a full year of continuing
updates on every stock and fund I
recommend — FREE!
Leading you to the stocks and funds that I’m convinced will hand you the greatest profits in the months ahead could make you substantially richer. But I don’t want to stop there.
I don’t want you to have to go through the next 12 to 18 months alone, as oil zigzags its way to $150 … $170 … $200 … perhaps higher. And I especially don’t want you to buy these investments, and then have to guess what to do next!
That’s why I’m going to stick with you throughout the next year or so, sending you at least three follow-up bulletins.
When I think the time is right, I’ll update you on your positions, give you my latest signals, and help keep you on course. I’ll tell you when to take profits, when to buy more and, in case I’m wrong about some of them, when and how to cut any losses.
My $100 gift to you …
This Tuesday, July 1, Energy Panic — The Next Profit Bonanza will be available worldwide at the regular price of $195 per copy.
But because you are a valued member of our Money and Markets family, I want you to have the opportunity to reach this unprecedented, eye-opening report and to get a head start on the stocks and funds I recommend in it.
So I’ve arranged for you to pre-order your copy now to make sure you’ll be on-board to download it the minute it’s released.
And, when you order now, you won’t have to pay the regular $195 price: You’ll be among the first to get a PDF of my Energy Panic — The Next Profit Bonanza white paper PLUS a full year of follow-up bulletins to keep you on top of the investments I recommend for just $95 …
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To pre-order your copy of Energy Panic now, just click this link or, if you prefer, call toll-free at 1-800-291-8545 and mention priority code: p446-86356 and we’ll make sure you’re among the first to receive your copy when it’s released this Tuesday, July 1.
Energy Panic will either multiply
your money or it’s FREE!
Anyone who tells you he can guarantee you profits is either a scoundrel or a fool — or both. It’s never possible to guarantee profits with any investment. But I can guarantee you this:
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In other words, either Energy Panic makes you a bundle, or I don’t make a penny. Fair enough?
The next, explosive phase of the greatest
energy bull market in history isn’t going to
wait for you, me, or anybody else …
In this bulletin, I’ve shown you how global supplies of oil and natural gas are dwindling — and why the remaining reserves are becoming more costly to extract with each passing day …
I’ve shown you how U.S. and global demand is still surging despite soaring prices …
I’ve offered you the opportunity to be the first to receive Energy Panic and my ten favorite energy plays to buy now — PLUS a full year of follow-up bulletins on my recos …
I’ve given you the opportunity to save $100 on your copy of this highly detailed, 57-page white paper by pre-ordering now …
And I’m even giving you the opportunity to read it — USE it — for up to 90 days without risking a penny you paid for it.
Now, #field8#, the ball is squarely in your court.
I’m fully convinced that energy prices will continue to soar and that the seven stocks and three funds I name in Energy Panic will skyrocket in value whether you own them or not.
I want to make sure you have the chance to own them before energy prices shoot for the moon again: Take a moment right now to secure your copy of Energy Panic — The Next Profit Bonanza and a full year of follow-up bulletins by clicking this link or by calling toll-free 1-800-291-8545 now!
The forces lined up to push energy prices higher are both powerful and immediate, and I believe an energy panic is inevitable. So please — get in early, buy my best picks now, and be among the first to grab your opportunity to reap your rewards.
Yours for trading profits,
Sean
P.S. Don’t forget: The publication date is this Tuesday, July 1. So your deadline to save $100 by buying the report at the special, pre-publication price is tomorrow night — June 30.
Just click this link or call toll-free 1-800-291-8545 and mention priority code: p446-86356 to secure your copy now!
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Last 5 posts by Sean Brodrick
- The Golden Phoenix - February 25th, 2009
- Blessing in Disguise - February 4th, 2009
- What I'm Reading Today - January 7th, 2009
- Gold and Oil Short-Term Trends - January 7th, 2009
- Is Gold Poised for a Pullback? - January 6th, 2009
Awful Truth, Chakib Khelil, Consumers, Current Market News, Energy Markets, Few Days, French Television, Mexico, Norway, opec, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Television Station, United Arab Emirates, Venezuela
![]() About Sean Brodrick (http://blogs.moneyandmarkets.com/blog/red-hot-energy-and-gold)
Sean Brodrick joined Weiss Research in 2000 as an analyst, bringing more than 25 years experience as a journalist and financial analyst to the position. He is Weiss Research’s small-caps specialist, especially in natural resources, and is the editor of the company’s Red-Hot Canadian Small-Caps, as well as a regular contributor to its daily e-letter, Money and Markets. Previously, Mr. Brodrick was the investment director of The Sovereign Society, the world’s leading publisher of offshore asset protection strategies and global investment opportunities. Recognized for his expertise on natural resources and Canadian and Australian investment opportunities, Mr. Brodrick has been featured on many financial talk shows, including CNBC Squawk Box, Fox Business, CNN, The Glenn Beck Show, Your World with Neil Cavuto and Bloomberg Market Line. He is a weekly guest on Market Matters Radio, a contributing columnist to MarketWatch.com and a frequent commentator on one of Canada’s premiere financial websites, HoweStreet.com. His report, “70 Days to Empty,” has garnered acclaim for its analysis of the forces pushing America toward its next oil crisis and was described by The Daily Reckoning as “the most important report you’re likely to read this year,” while his knowledge of uranium has helped investors earn solid gains on the commodity. Mr. Brodrick holds a B.A. degree from the University of Maine. |






