Things work a certain way.

This is our eleventh May at our cabin and one thing we can count on every year is that no matter how warm it might get in April it will get very cold and maybe even snow, like it is today (that picture is from this morning), sometime between May 10th and May 15th.

Invariably someone will make a comment in April about it being warm from there on out and it is always wrong. The cyclicality of this is very reliable.

There is an obvious parallel here with the bear phase of a stock market cycle. There are always feel good rallies in a bear that cause people to think it will be a bull from there on out and it is always wrong.

Of course this could be a first or maybe despite it quacking like a bear it is not, but there is nothing new about big lifts during bear markets.

Last 5 posts by Roger Nusbaum

• The Big Picture for the Week of November 15, 2009 - November 14th, 2009
• Process Drilldown - October 23rd, 2009
• Sunday Morning Coffee 10-18-09 - October 18th, 2009
• A Little Followup From This Morning - October 8th, 2009
• Wednesday Roundup - October 7th, 2009