Hyperinflation in America: When a Loaf of Bread is $3 Billion
Source: http://feeds.moneymorning.com/~r/moneymorning/jOLe/~3/mqije2_Iwas/Posted on Tuesday, October 16th, 2012 | In Uncategorized
Contributed by: Money Morning (http://moneymorning.com) -
Tags: consumer price index america, fiscal policy america, how to survive hyperinflation, Hyperinflation, hyperinflation 2011, hyperinflation effects, hyperinflation in America, is hyperinflation coming 2012, surviving hyperinflation
Too few understand just how disruptive hyperinflation in America would be.
Truth is, it would be a nightmare.
In an episode of hyperinflation, money loses value so rapidly that people spend it as quickly as possible, which only feeds the cycle of pushing prices higher and higher at a faster and faster rate.
Imagine prices at the food store and gas pump not just going up a few cents at a time, but doubling in a matter of months, weeks, or even days.
And now some economists and market experts think many of the ingredients for hyperinflation are brewing in America.
That's because years of profligate U.S. government borrowing and spending have created trillions of dollars that lurk in the reserves of foreign countries and major financial institutions. The situation escalated after the 2008 financial crisis, with the U.S. Federal Reserve's policies of "quantitative easing" creating even more money.
"The U.S. government and the Federal Reserve have committed the system to its ultimate insolvency, through the easy politics of a bottomless pocketbook, the servicing of big-moneyed special interests, gross mismanagement, and a deliberate and ongoing effort to debase the U.S. currency," said John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics in his annual report on hyperinflation.
Historically, governments that have suffered bouts of hyperinflation - most notoriously Weimar Germany from 1922-1923 - have set the table by printing too much money during a time of economic contraction.
The trouble is, once it starts it's impossible to stop. Hyperinflation in America isn't here yet, but we're edging dangerously close to the point of no return.
Truth is, it would be a nightmare.
In an episode of hyperinflation, money loses value so rapidly that people spend it as quickly as possible, which only feeds the cycle of pushing prices higher and higher at a faster and faster rate.
Imagine prices at the food store and gas pump not just going up a few cents at a time, but doubling in a matter of months, weeks, or even days.
And now some economists and market experts think many of the ingredients for hyperinflation are brewing in America.
That's because years of profligate U.S. government borrowing and spending have created trillions of dollars that lurk in the reserves of foreign countries and major financial institutions. The situation escalated after the 2008 financial crisis, with the U.S. Federal Reserve's policies of "quantitative easing" creating even more money.
"The U.S. government and the Federal Reserve have committed the system to its ultimate insolvency, through the easy politics of a bottomless pocketbook, the servicing of big-moneyed special interests, gross mismanagement, and a deliberate and ongoing effort to debase the U.S. currency," said John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics in his annual report on hyperinflation.
Historically, governments that have suffered bouts of hyperinflation - most notoriously Weimar Germany from 1922-1923 - have set the table by printing too much money during a time of economic contraction.
The trouble is, once it starts it's impossible to stop. Hyperinflation in America isn't here yet, but we're edging dangerously close to the point of no return.
"We're certainly at a flashing yellow alert," Art Cashin, Director of Floor Operations at UBS Financial Services, told King World News last week. "You have in place a variety of things that could begin to react somewhat domino-like."
Cashin drew attention last week when he sent out a report detailing the Weimar hyperinflationary disaster, concluding that the episode was why "many express concern about unintended consequences of each new wave of quantitative easing."
But the seeds of hyperinflation tend to be sown long before the signs of hyperinflation become apparent.
So it could be a while before any evidence of hyperinflation shows up, despite QE1, QE2 and QE3.
"Even when they [Weimar Germany] were actually printing money, literally printing, the inflationary spiral didn't happen instantly," Cashin told King World News. "It was delayed a couple of years. But once it started, it could not be taken back."
The key is that no matter how much of a currency exists, if large amounts of it remain out of circulation, inflation - and hyperinflation in particular - can't happen.
"The analogy I use is if the Fed flew over your house and dropped a million dollars in brand new bills, and you were so worried you put them in your garage, that's not inflationary," Cashin said. "It's only inflationary when you lend it or spend it."
For the U.S., the "garage full of money" is the trillions in U.S. Treasurys squirreled away in places like Japan and China, as well as hedge funds and major U.S. and European banks.
Should some sort of financial crisis cause a run on the dollar - a sudden meltdown of the long-simmering Eurozone debt crisis, or if no one blinks in Washington's game of chicken over budget and debt issues - the situation could unravel quickly.
"The Fed's initial moves to debase the U.S. dollar worked, impairing the U.S. currency's exchange rate value and triggering commodity inflation fueled by the weak-dollar policy," said Williams in his report.
"This also has helped to set the stage for a global dumping of the dollar and dollar-denominated paper assets, a rapid influx of unwanted dollars from abroad that either would collapse the financial markets or would force the Fed to flood the system with the incoming liquidity, monetizing dumped U.S. Treasury securities among other assets."
RELATED: Four ways to survive the coming market collapse
Going back to his Weimar example, Cashin used the price of a loaf of bread to illustrate this.
In 1914, before World War I, a loaf of bread in Germany cost the equivalent of 13 cents. Two years later it was 19 cents, and by 1919, after the war, that same loaf was 26 cents - doubling the prewar price in five years.
Bad, yes -- but not alarming. But one year later a German loaf of bread cost $1.20. By mid-1922, it was $3.50. Just six months later, a loaf cost $700, and by the spring of 1923 it was $1,200. As of September, it cost $2 million to buy a loaf of bread. One month later, it cost $670 million, and the month after that $3 billion. Within weeks it was $100 billion, at which point the German mark completely collapsed.
The whole time the German government kept printing more money, so much so that people burned it in their fireplaces because it was cheaper than wood.
Why didn't they just stop and try to stabilize the currency?
"When things began to disintegrate, no one dared to take away the punchbowl," Cashin wrote in his report. "They feared shutting off the monetary heroin would lead to riots, civil war, and, worst of all, communism. So, realizing that what they were doing was destructive, they kept doing it out of fear that stopping would be even more destructive."
Cashin advises Americans to keep an eye on M2, a measure of the nation's money supply, particularly how much money is in circulation. The government reports this number every week. A sudden spike could signal the start of hyperinflation in America.
And once people decide they'd rather spend their money as fast as possible, the so-called "velocity of money" - how quickly money changes hands - takes off. The faster it goes, the higher the rate of inflation.
Hyperinflation in America would create havoc in the markets. Bonds would become toxic and stocks would plummet. But precious metals like gold and silver would soar, as would commodities like oil, copper and corn. Foreign currencies would also skyrocket against the dollar.
"If you begin to see not just the first signs of inflation, but acceleration - it will come very fast - then you have to think about how you are protected," Cashin said, advising people to make sure they're invested in hard assets like commodities or real estate.
But most of all, Cashin urges that Americans stay vigilant.
"If [M2] begins to grow rapidly, then the money that the Fed has created will be seen as moving through the system and that will create the high risk of accelerated inflation and, God forbid, runaway inflation," Cashin told King World News. And if that happens, he said, "get very cautious."
Related Articles and News:
Cashin drew attention last week when he sent out a report detailing the Weimar hyperinflationary disaster, concluding that the episode was why "many express concern about unintended consequences of each new wave of quantitative easing."
Hyperinflation in America: Where Is It?
Some may point to the moderate inflation in the U.S. now - between 2% and 3% -- and reason that hyperinflation in America is a distant possibility, if it could happen at all.But the seeds of hyperinflation tend to be sown long before the signs of hyperinflation become apparent.
So it could be a while before any evidence of hyperinflation shows up, despite QE1, QE2 and QE3.
"Even when they [Weimar Germany] were actually printing money, literally printing, the inflationary spiral didn't happen instantly," Cashin told King World News. "It was delayed a couple of years. But once it started, it could not be taken back."
The key is that no matter how much of a currency exists, if large amounts of it remain out of circulation, inflation - and hyperinflation in particular - can't happen.
"The analogy I use is if the Fed flew over your house and dropped a million dollars in brand new bills, and you were so worried you put them in your garage, that's not inflationary," Cashin said. "It's only inflationary when you lend it or spend it."
For the U.S., the "garage full of money" is the trillions in U.S. Treasurys squirreled away in places like Japan and China, as well as hedge funds and major U.S. and European banks.
Should some sort of financial crisis cause a run on the dollar - a sudden meltdown of the long-simmering Eurozone debt crisis, or if no one blinks in Washington's game of chicken over budget and debt issues - the situation could unravel quickly.
"The Fed's initial moves to debase the U.S. dollar worked, impairing the U.S. currency's exchange rate value and triggering commodity inflation fueled by the weak-dollar policy," said Williams in his report.
"This also has helped to set the stage for a global dumping of the dollar and dollar-denominated paper assets, a rapid influx of unwanted dollars from abroad that either would collapse the financial markets or would force the Fed to flood the system with the incoming liquidity, monetizing dumped U.S. Treasury securities among other assets."
RELATED: Four ways to survive the coming market collapse
Warning Signs of Hyperinflation
Cashin noted that hyperinflation can sneak up in that it often appears at first to be only higher-than-normal conventional inflation.Going back to his Weimar example, Cashin used the price of a loaf of bread to illustrate this.
In 1914, before World War I, a loaf of bread in Germany cost the equivalent of 13 cents. Two years later it was 19 cents, and by 1919, after the war, that same loaf was 26 cents - doubling the prewar price in five years.
Bad, yes -- but not alarming. But one year later a German loaf of bread cost $1.20. By mid-1922, it was $3.50. Just six months later, a loaf cost $700, and by the spring of 1923 it was $1,200. As of September, it cost $2 million to buy a loaf of bread. One month later, it cost $670 million, and the month after that $3 billion. Within weeks it was $100 billion, at which point the German mark completely collapsed.
The whole time the German government kept printing more money, so much so that people burned it in their fireplaces because it was cheaper than wood.
Why didn't they just stop and try to stabilize the currency?
"When things began to disintegrate, no one dared to take away the punchbowl," Cashin wrote in his report. "They feared shutting off the monetary heroin would lead to riots, civil war, and, worst of all, communism. So, realizing that what they were doing was destructive, they kept doing it out of fear that stopping would be even more destructive."
Cashin advises Americans to keep an eye on M2, a measure of the nation's money supply, particularly how much money is in circulation. The government reports this number every week. A sudden spike could signal the start of hyperinflation in America.
And once people decide they'd rather spend their money as fast as possible, the so-called "velocity of money" - how quickly money changes hands - takes off. The faster it goes, the higher the rate of inflation.
Preparing for Hyperinflation in America
No one can predict precisely when, or even if, an episode of hyperinflation might strike. But because the consequences would be so devastating, it bears watching no matter how slim the possibility.Hyperinflation in America would create havoc in the markets. Bonds would become toxic and stocks would plummet. But precious metals like gold and silver would soar, as would commodities like oil, copper and corn. Foreign currencies would also skyrocket against the dollar.
"If you begin to see not just the first signs of inflation, but acceleration - it will come very fast - then you have to think about how you are protected," Cashin said, advising people to make sure they're invested in hard assets like commodities or real estate.
But most of all, Cashin urges that Americans stay vigilant.
"If [M2] begins to grow rapidly, then the money that the Fed has created will be seen as moving through the system and that will create the high risk of accelerated inflation and, God forbid, runaway inflation," Cashin told King World News. And if that happens, he said, "get very cautious."
Related Articles and News:
- Money Morning:
What to Expect When the Reign of the U.S. Dollar Comes to an End - Money Morning:
How QE3 and Higher Inflation Are Part of the Fed's Master Plan - Money Morning:
How the U.S. National Debt Could Drain Your Savings - Money Morning:
Steak, Hamburger and Dog Food: How the Government Lies About the Real Inflation Rate - Azizonomics:
ExplainingHyperinflation - ZeroHedge:
Cashin Remembers Germany's Hyperinflation Birthday - Forbes:
Where's The Hyperinflation? - Business Insider:
How Hyperinflation Will Happen In America
Tags: consumer price index america, fiscal policy america, how to survive hyperinflation, Hyperinflation, hyperinflation 2011, hyperinflation effects, hyperinflation in America, is hyperinflation coming 2012, surviving hyperinflation
About Money Morning (http://moneymorning.com)
Money Moves the Markets; Money Morning Lets You Move First We’re in the midst of the greatest investing boom in almost 60 years. And rest assured - this boom is not about to end anytime soon. You see, the “flattening of the world” continues to spawn new markets worth trillions of dollars; new customers that measure in the billions; an insatiable global demand for basic resources that’s growing exponentially ; and a technological revolution even in the most distant markets on the planet. The bottom line is this: With U.S. influence slipping, and the dollar declining as well, investors who think too narrowly about this transformation will face years of meager returns. But those who embrace this new global reality can make themselves very wealthy. # Over the next 25 years, America’s share of the worldwide economic pie will slip from 28% to 24%… # Even as Asia’s share almost doubles ;which means it will account for a whopping 55% of the global economy by 2030. The big brokerage firms are making a killing on the global boom. Yet Wall Street reserves the timeliest information - and the best profit opportunities - for its partners or wealthiest clients. And the Securities and Exchange Commission doesn’t help the everyday investor much either. The second sad fact is this: While you can buy any U.S. or Canadian stock you want, the SEC prohibits you from purchasing many of the available international stocks. The reason: Foreign companies that haven’t registered with the SEC are off-limits to most U.S. individual investors. Our worldwide research staff includes former investment bankers, international financiers, emerging markets specialists and veteran financial journalists. Our experts know that certain capital flows essentially act as a “leading indicator” of future profit opportunities. These are opportunities that you won’t be reading or hearing about anywhere else. Each weekday morning, in a readable style you can digest in just a few minutes, you will reap the benefits of our research and expert experiences. Indeed, Money Morning will bring you: # The latest reports on China, Japan, Emerging Europe, and the other global hot spots where most investor wealth will be created in the months and years to come… # Reports on companies you’ve likely never heard of - even though they’re poised to sell billions worth of their wares to “new middle class” customers around the world… # Information on the U.S. companies shrewd enough to cash in on this boom in global; # The latest developments in banking, interest rates, foreign investment and other global investing topics; # Advice on how to invest in currencies, precious metals, commodities and energy # Inside news on the hottest investments, including water, uranium and private equity… # And news on rules and regulations, financial trends and strategies - and any other “market intelligence” that you will need to become a shrewd-and-successful investor in the greatest global investing boom most of us will ever see. Money does move markets. But Money Morning lets you move first. |
No recommendations, either expressed or implied, are being made to buy, sell, hold or short any of the mentioned stocks. No legal, tax or accounting advice is expressed or implied. Always contact your attorney, CPA, or tax advisor before acting on any legal or tax issues. StraightStocks.com is not responsible for the content, products, or services of any of the advertisers on this site. StraightStocks.com receives compensation from advertisers on this blog. Services and products referred to herein are trademarks, registered trademarks, servicemarks, and/or registered servicemarks of their respective trademark or servicemark owners.