Bookkeeping: Closing FTI Consulting (FCN)
Posted on Tuesday, May 27th, 2008 | In Current Market News, Stocks to WatchI’m closing a smallish position in FTI Consulting (FCN) just under $62. I started this stake in November 2007 [Nov 27: 2 New Recession Plays] and I still like the thesis and this company specifically long term; even if the Wall Street Journal does not [Apr 28: Wall Street Journal does not like FTI Consulting] – I continue to believe this name will churn out 20% solid returns for the long run as it is becoming a gorilla in it’s space. But it is (and has been for a long while) richly valued and with a growth rate of 20% or so, I am not sure what the upside is. Or put another way, I think I can find more upside in some of my other ideas.
Further, this allows me to continue to streamline my long positions – while the position created some balance in the portfolio away from global growth/commodity stories – I’ve purchased other stocks to replicate that exposure in the meantime. So this decision is nothing against the company itself which simply executes quarter after quarter. I could see a return to the portfolio at some point in the future; and the firm’s niche consulting business should prosper in the weakening economy of latter 2008, 2009…. err, I mean the booming recovery of latter 2008, 2009.
Since Thanksgiving, I’ve managed to lose $300 on this name 
– which in the scheme of things means flat / dead money. The chart below showcases this flattish behavior (with many ups and downs along the way). I would not be surprised to see this stock retreat to its 200 day moving average nearer to $57; the chart seems to be whispering this to us.
Adios.
No position
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 About Trader Mark (http://fundmyfund.blogspot.com)
Mark is a self taught private investor, fascinated by the market since an early age, discovering mutual funds as a teenager in the 80s, and then moving to equities by the mid 90s. His equity focus is identifying secular growth trends, and the companies most likely to benefit from these macro trends. Stocks are identified through fundamental analysis, although basic technical analysis is used in determining entry and exit points. With a degree in Economics from the University of Michigan, a broader understanding of the economy as a whole, along with interpreting investor psychology is also a major interest for Mark. His career background has focused on financial analysis in corporate America. |
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