In the all encompassing Greenspan blitz he made one comment that resonated with me which was that he could see the ten year treasury yielding 8% at some undefined point in time but I think he was talking over the next couple of years.

This is consistent with a point I have been making for a long time (here is one instance I mentioned it but there have been many others) which is that there is visibility for slightly higher rates resulting in a little slower growth and slightly lower equity returns over longer periods of time.

My thoughts were more like the ten year in the sixes but 8% is a number that falls with in the range of historically normal.

The investment impact would be that bonds become more attractive. I don’t necessarily know that it means we should own more bonds so much as it become safer to extend maturities. For equities it probably means we need to learn more than we currently know about investing in foreign stocks.

Last 5 posts by Roger Nusbaum

• The Big Picture for the Week of November 15, 2009 - November 14th, 2009
• Process Drilldown - October 23rd, 2009
• Sunday Morning Coffee 10-18-09 - October 18th, 2009
• A Little Followup From This Morning - October 8th, 2009
• Wednesday Roundup - October 7th, 2009