The United Arab Emirates dirham will appreciate 5 percent in 2009 as faster inflation in the Gulf state forces the central bank to ditch its 30-year peg to the dollar peg next year, according to CFC Seymour Ltd. The central bank of the U.A.E. will drop the dollar peg by June of next year, linking the dirham to a basket of currencies, including the dollar and the euro, Hong Kong-based currency analyst Carol Chan said in a phone interview yesterday. The dirham will rise to 3.49 to the dollar from its peg rate of 3.6725 today, said Chan. Inflation in the second-largest Arab economy accelerated to 11.1 percent in 2007 from 9.3 percent in 2006 as rent surged while the weaker dollar and higher global food prices made imports more expensive. With monetary policy tied to the U.S., the U.A.E. has put ...

By Jason Simpkins Associate Editor Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. (MER) has raised its annual infrastructure-spending estimate for emerging markets by 80%, as developing countries try to keep pace with fast-growing economies and large cash reserves, BusinessWeek reported. Investment in infrastructure, which the firm sees as the long-term solution to inflation, will rise from $1.25 trillion to $2.25 trillion annually over the next three years. And China, the Middle East, and Russia will account for 70% of infrastructure spending. The report from Merrill Lynch pointed out that Xstrata PLC (OTC: XSRAY) recently predicted emerging markets would spend $22 trillion on infrastructure in the next 10 years. “That estimate is among the highest we’ve seen,” the report noted, “with an implied run rate of $6.6 trillion over the next three years.” Estimated Infrastructure Spending For the Next Three Year...

Article Source By Jeffrey Frankel Today, we're fortunate to have Jeff Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, as a guest blogger. His blog is here. The possibility that some Gulf states, particularly the UAE, might abandon their long-time pegs to the dollar is getting increasing attention (from Martin Feldstein and Brad Setser, for instance). It makes sense. The combination of high oil prices, rapid growth, a tightly fixed exchange rate, and the big depreciation of the dollar against other currencies (especially the euro, important for Gulf imports) was always going to be a recipe for strong money inflows and inflation in these countries. The economic dynamism -- most striking in Dubai -- is admirable and fascinating, but also now clearly indicative of overheating. Indeed inflation, as predicted, has risen alarmingly. Among other ill effects, it is producing ...

Just a few days ago, OPEC President Chakib Khelil told a French television station the awful truth that U.S. consumers don't want to hear. "I foresee prices probably between $150 and $170 this summer," Khelil said. At the same time, Libya announced it may cut production because the market is "oversupplied." Oil Minister Shokri Ghanem said: "We don't see any need for more oil. There is plenty of oil in the market." Libya pumps about 1.71 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil, out of total OPEC output of 32.12 million bpd. That means Libya could easily take away the 300,000 barrels in new production that the Saudis promised just a week ago. The Libyans, along with the rest of OPEC, want prices where they are now ... or higher. Why? Because they want ...

By William Patalon III Executive Editor Money Morning/The Money Map Report Oil and jet-fuel prices are in the stratosphere, many of the world’s top airlines have ordered severe cutbacks, and passenger traffic is falling, so why is Dubai funneling 82 billion of its petrodollars into an aerospace project that includes plans for the world’s largest airport? The answer is simple. Dubai isn’t concerned about the near-term turbulence that has sent global investors diving for cover and induced airline-industry executives to hanger portions of their jetliner fleets. The leaders of that Middle Eastern country have taken a long and studious look at the powerful global trends that are destined to play out over the next 20, 30 or even 40 years, and have crafted their plans accordingly. In a broad sense, that focus on the long term is a lesson U.S. investors would be ...