There may be a pot of gold bars and precious metal at the end of the rainbow after all – regardless of which direction the global economy heads from here on. Mining commodities such as copper, nickel, aluminum, and particularly gold, have traditionally been regarded as a hedge against inflation and bearish economic times. So it makes sense that gold has recently hit an all-time high and is seemingly on a continued ramp-up. However, I believe that gold and mining will flourish regardless of economic collapse or boom.

First, the bear scenario

History has already proven that gold thrives as an investment in bearish economic times. I don’t need to convince you that this is the case in the current global economy as well. Just for completeness – back to econ101, gold assumes its natural role

Let’s take a quick look at what’s happening in Brazil, over and above the 2016 Olympics being awarded to Rio de Janeiro.

“I don’t know if I will live to see it,” said Brazil’s president Luiz (Lula) da Silva a couple weeks ago. “But Brazil has to transform itself into a big power in the 21st century. We have everything to make it happen. We are not talking about a little country here.”

No, indeed. Brazil is not “a little country” anymore. Any prudent investor has to consider how to hitch a ride on the Brazil growth story. Brazil is transforming into one of the world’s great powers in this century. It’s important to follow the news from Brazil. At the same time, you have to know where to look, and how to read between the lines.

By official count — what the Brazilian government will confirm — the rocks of Brazil hold

Rare earth elements (REEs) have been the mystery metals of the mining world for years. Now, suddenly, everyone’s heard about them.

Before we delve into the reasons behind all the publicity, here’s the basic skinny on REEs: One, they are rare, at least sort of. Two, they are indispensable to modern technology. Three, the number of active, dedicated producers is tiny, with more than 90% of the world’s supply coming from China.

If you took high school chemistry, you probably remember the periodic table of the elements. But if you’re like most of us, even if you pulled a 95 on the chem final, you may not recall many of the details today. And there’s a better than even chance you never bothered to memorize the names of the REEs. It’s time to get reacquainted.

They’re generally clustered in a separate grouping at the bottom of the table, are known collectively as the

David Rosenberg, chief economist for Gluskin-Sheff, is a contrarian with a superior intellect than our own. That’s why we hang on most every word he says.

Throughout the “sh*t hitting the fan” events of last fall, and the subsequent policy response, we’ve listened intently on what this Canadian had to say. The picture he paints today is one of bearish conviction. That’s exactly the reason he’s come under recent criticism as his ilk of ivory tower economists have started calling an end to this recession.

Though we don’t think he has anything to prove, he released a special report reaffirming his key points. You can read it in full here. But if you don’t have the time to peruse the twenty-two page (slightly wonkish) document, we’ve broken down the basic takeaway for you.

The equity markets have moved too far, too fast, and a correction is coming.

That’s a question that Westerners have been asking for, oh, several millennia now. Or at least since Marco Polo aimed his ponies down the old Silk Road in 1271.

Now as then, China keeps its own counsel. We know what they want us to know, plus what we can surmise from rumor and reading between the lines. But lately, we’ve been able to add presumption to news and come up with something that looks very significant.

Specifically, there’s been a flood of tantalizing stories out of the East that, taken together, strongly suggest a growing preoccupation with a form of money that was ancient even in Signor Polo’s time. And it ain’t silk. It’s gold.

We already learned, back in April, that China has been salting away bullion for the previous six years, out of sight of international gold watchers. To the tune of 14.6 million ounces. Now the evidence suggests that that

In the spirit of not suffering from confirmation bias, in today’s Notes we will try to make the bearish case against gold. So before you storm Notes HQ in Buenos Aires craving blood, hear us out. Many of our staff here love gold and have long term holdings.

This issue is entirely in the contrarian spirit of playing devil’s advocate. So put your pitchforks down. Take a deep breath. There is plenty of space to poke holes in (or rant) about our thesis by writing to info@contrarianprofits.com

So here it goes. The four reasons you shouldn’t buy gold today…

Reason 1: Did you know that the seventh largest holder of gold in the world is not a country, but an exchange traded fund? Yes, gold ETF SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has amassed the seventh largest gold reserve in the world. This fund holds more gold than China, Switzerland, Japan, the United Kingdom or the

As the equities market gyrates, gold bugs are getting their vindication. Better late then never, I suppose.

It is pretty clear where the folks selling their share of the equities market yesterday put their cash. As investors look for a safe haven, the gold market is booming today.

Gold prices settled today at $978.50 per ounce, an increase of $22.20 from yesterday’s final figure. The action is a surefire sign that investors are getting nervous.

It was almost a year ago when the precious metal entered one of its most volatile periods. Over the span of several months, gold prices ran from $800 to $900, back down to $700 and then the whole back to the $1,000 mark and beyond.

As more and more analysts and investors claim the equities market is topped out, plenty of folks are beginning to wonder if we are in for another volatile autumn.

While a repeat of last

Gold prices rallied today, Thursday, to their highest level since February on strong investment demand amid caution ahead of key U.S. non-farm payrolls data on Friday (London GMT).

Bill O’Neill, managing partner of New Jersey-based LOGIC Advisors, said that asset-diversification demand for gold and other precious metals by jittery investors amid shaky equities markets propelled gold’s rally.

Spot gold hit an intraday peak of $992.55, which marked the highest price since Feb. 24. It was at $989.10 an ounce at 12:07 p.m. EDT (1607 GMT), against $976.60 an ounce late in New York on Wednesday.

U.S. December gold futures were up $10.70 at $989.20 an ounce on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Fears that U.S. payrolls data may disappoint sparked a flight to quality among investors on Wednesday. The metal broke out of its previous $930-$960 range as a move through technical resistance above $960 sparked a rally.

VTB Capital analyst Andrey Kryuchenkov

Gold climbed on Tuesday after data showed the U.S. manufacturing sector grew more than expected in August, lifting appetite for assets seen as higher risk, such as commodities, and boosting inflation fears.

But gains were capped by a slight recovery in the U.S. dollar and by a reduction in the metal’s appeal as a haven.

Spot gold was bid at $954.40 an ounce at 1444 GMT, against $949.65 an ounce late in New York on Monday. U.S. gold futures for December delivery on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $2.70 to $956.20.

The data from the Institute of Supply Managers showed the U.S. manufacturing sector returned to growth in August after a prolonged slump, while pending home sales raced to a two-year high in July.

The news boosted U.S. stock markets, while European shares pared earlier losses.

Simon Weeks, head of precious metals at the Bank of Nova Scotia, said the news was

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