Ariel Cohen and Richard Ericson have a new paper discussing Russia's economic crisis and its relations with the United States. I would encourage reading this paper in full as it hits on all the major factors relevant to Russia's economic situation though I will warn up front that a fair number of you will take exception to their interpretation of some of those factors. In addition there a couple of points that the authors have either overlooked or simply assumed readers would already be aware of that I think are worth spelling out briefly first.

The first has to do with the recommendations the authors make for US policy. I have no major disagreements with the recommendations themselves, but would argue that executing most of them depend on Putin being out of the picture, among other things.

Another point regards the China

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I gave a talk at a conference today and we released the white paper on Singapore so frankly I'm getting to this later than it would normally take to respond.

I believe Magna is one of those cases I have spoken about in the past of premature contractualisation. In other words, the fireworks around the deal and the necessity to get the announcement of the deal out were in some ways, politically at least, almost as important as the deal itself. What GM cannot take away is that Vladimir Putin managed to significantly impact German domestic politics through the announcement of this deal. Further, Frank Stronach of Magna has earned more Putin points than he can count and therefore there can be little question that when the Russian economy revives, Magna will find itself in a preeminent position. The key Russians involved in

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Bob has an opinion article in today's edition of the Guardian stressing the importance of linking human rights with foreign relations during David Miliband's visit to Russia this week, and elsewhere in the same paper, Mikhail Khodorkovsky's mother has issued her own appeal to the foreign secretary.

At least one report confirms that Khodorkovsky's case will indeed be discussed.

Miliband has started on this path already, apparently. He met with human rights activists today where, according to Radio Free Europe/Radio Libery, he "expressed his concern over the killings of activists of nongovernmental organizations in Russia and the pressure that is being imposed on civil society."

Miliband also pressed Russia to

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Tonight in Leipzig, Germany, Gidon Kremer and the Kremerata Baltica under conductor Roman Kofman will perform the German premiere of Arvo Pärt's "4th Symphony" in dedication to Mikhail Khodorkovsky, as well as the "Silent Prayer" by Giya Kancheli.All proceeds from the concert will benefit the Podmoskovny Lyceum boarding school, an orphanage founded by the Mikhail Khodorkovsky Foundation in 1994 to provide educational support for orphans and children from underprivileged families.  The Podmoskovny Lyceum is run by Khodorkovsky's mother Marina Filipovna, and is under constant pressure to close from the public authorities, so your help is most appreciated.Read more about the concert here.

The elections are over in Germany and the new finance minister is making sobering statements about recovery. Germany is a major part of the European economy. With Italy limping and Spain bleeding, Germany’s statement is hardly welcome.

New York Times (October 25, 2009)

“Germany’s new finance minister, the veteran conservative politician Wolfgang Schäuble, moved swiftly Sunday to assert his power and tell his compatriots and the world that the finances of the largest European economy were dire and would take years to mend. …   It was “utopia” to believe that the budget could be balanced during this legislative period that lasts four years, he said. … The programs announced for the new government included a €24 billion, or $36 billion, cut in taxes, which Mr. Schäuble had opposed as unrealistic given the parlous condition of state finances and the continuing uncertainty over the stability of German banks.”

The IMF

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I live to this day as well...

Grigory Pasko, journalist

Instead of an epigraph: «Endpiece of a modern fairytale: «And had the not been rehabilitated, they live to this day as well» -- Jerzy Lec

Если Вы хотите прочитать оригинал данной статьи на русском языке, нажмите сюда.It goes without saying that I am disappointed by the decision of the European Court of Human Rights. But no more than that. The ECHR decision in any case is belated and doesn't change anything in my life. Much worse is that this decision, in essence, is a spit into the souls of thousands of people: both those who are still waiting for positive decisions with respect ...

The following is a translation of the MBK's opinion editorial as published today in Vedomosti (original is here).

GENERATION M

Many of my comrades consider that it is senseless to comment on president Dmitry Medvedev's famous article "Russia, forward!", and even more so to polemicise with it. According to this point of view, the publicly declared attempt by Medvedev to appeal to the intellectually and creatively active part of society is a farce and a bluff, and the head of state is merely playing the classic role of the "good cop" in a theatrical performance by the name of "The Russian Tandemocracy". All this is being done so that one part of the population of the RF would continue to

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A new book has been published about a very interesting period in continental history - Russia's confrontation with Napoleon in 1812, just one of the many conflicts with Western Europe over the past few centuries which continues to have its impact on the collective memory and security orientation of the modern Russian state.  The work was authored by the London School of Economic professor Dominic Lieven - the elder brother of Anatol Lieven.  Holidays in that household must be entertaining.Yet the gap is an extraordinary one: to cite just a few aspects of the situation, from 1805 onwards Russia was a key player - indeed, in some respects the key player - in the international relations of Napoleonic Europe; the campaign of 1812 was not just an episode of positively epic dimensions, but also a moment of seminal importance in the ...

I'm grateful to the commenter John who guided me toward this link for the report sponsored by the Swedish Ministry of Defence on energy security and the North European Gas Pipeline, otherwise known as Nord Stream.  I was a little too hasty and did not see the link in the New York Times story.  One reason I may have missed this one is that it was published in back in 2006 - meaning we would certainly have to add to the quoted number of times (55) that Russia has cut energy supplies to apply political pressure.  At any rate, here is the section from the paper that details the methodology of coercive energy policy.

Russia's Coercive Energy Policy in Aggregated Terms

If these cases are penetrated and put in a wider context, a pattern emerges, namely that the energy lever can

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Miriam Elder has a good one in the FT today about the problems at Gazprom, no doubt worsened by European incoherence:

"If the company cuts [its investment] too much, it may be harmful for them if demand surges. They will miss an opportunity," says Fatih Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency. "It may give an impetus to European governments to look at other options," he says, including renewables and nuclear energy.

Gazprom says it will keep investments down as long as European demand remains in a slump. "Why invest money in what is not in demand?" Gazprom deputy chief executive Alexander Ananenkov said when first floating the Bovanenkovo delay in June. (...)

In the short term, that should have little effect on European supply, as demand remains low and work at the massive Bovanenkovo field is close to completion, says Jonathan Stern, director of gas research at the Oxford Institute

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