The following appeared in the November issue of Business Diary Botswana:

Despite the IMF’s recent projection that Botswana’s economy will contract 10.3% this year, the lender expects a 4.1% uptick next year such that emergency funding would not be required. Back in June the country tapped a $1.5bn “budget support loan” from the African Development Bank–the largest such facility ever granted by the Bank–in order to finance part of a budget deficit then estimated at around 13.5% of GDP, and since revised to 14%. The IMF cited a renewal of demand for diamonds as a central facet of its optimistic forecast. Furthermore, it predicted, GDP growth across sub-Saharan Africa will rise to approximately 4% next year and 5% in 2011, up from 1.1% in 2009. “We think it should be possible for sub-Saharan Africa to recover quicker this time around and have a ‘V-shaped recovery,’”

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Kuwait-based Abyaar Real Estate Development Company (Abyaar), which develops and manages properties in the UAE and in Dubai in particular, recently announced a net profit for the first nine months of 2009 of KD5 million ($17.5 million) and an EPS of 6.90 fils (a subdivision of currency used in many Arab countries, where KD1 roughly equals 1000 fils).  Per its chairman, Hesham Abdul Wahab Al Obeid, the firm reduced financing debt during the period by 30%, down to KD 77 million, compared to KD108 million during the same period of 2008.  Owners’ equity also increased, up to KD146 million.

The strong showing begs the question how quickly Abyaar will return to the debt markets; in October 2008 it postponed a proposed sale of Islamic bonds worth up to $1 billion in order to finance its expansion plans.  Rashed Al-Rashdan, its

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Credit Suisse, for one, is maintaining an “overweight” rating on Egyptian equities in light of the country’s robust GDP growth–the strongest in 2009-10 GDP in the mainstream Europe, Middle East and African (EMEA) region–as well as its “solid external position and low currency risk.” In particular, the investment bank views Egypt as a “manufacturing base for neighboring Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, with excellent growth prospects [underpinned by] strong demographic support,” while also referencing a solid banking sector that “offers excellent asset growth potential funded by deposits” against the overall backdrop of an economy with an “extremely accommodative monetary policy.” Per Bloomberg, economic growth in Egypt, the most populous Arab country, rose from 4.9% in Q3 from 4.7% the previous three months. Yet growth is still below the average 7% seen from 2005-2008.

Sticking with Egypt, many analysts expressed surprise earlier this week when the central

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A shortage of foreign currency in Malawi is beginning to undermine the fixedexchange rate policy that has been in place for more than two years.The kwacha has weakened slightly against the dollar. On the black market, the currency is trading at 190.br /br /The shortage of foreign currency means Telekom Networks Malawi, the country’s second largest mobile phone operator, has halted expansion of its network because it was unable to import equipment.div class="blogger-post-footer"img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/3742382075154765669-9148450018240027279?l=danfonds.blogspot.com' alt='' //div

Now they are even exploring for oil in Kenya. Africa Oil Corp's Bogal-1 oil exploration well operated by China owned CNOOC spudded on October 28, 2009. The well is expected to reach total depth of 5,500 meters within approximately 6 months.br /br /Block 9 covers an area of 27,778 square kilometers in the centre of the Anza Basin. The Anza Basin is a NW-SE trending rift basin along trend with the prolific Mesozoic play of southern Sudan. The basin is over 580 kilometers long and 150 kilometers wide with a potential prospective area in excess of 50,000 square kilometers. Experts believe they may have proven the existence of natural gas and possibly oil.div class="blogger-post-footer"img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/3742382075154765669-4084969811259569867?l=danfonds.blogspot.com' alt='' //div

According to Abdulla Salatt, chairman of the company’s fertilizer unit (QAFCO), Industries Qatar–the country’s largest firm by market cap–will increase production of urea (used as a nitrogen-release fertilizer) and related products to supply growing global demand with a specific focus on South America, and in particular, Brazil.  “We are thinking of sending more products to Brazil because it is a big agriculture country, consuming a lot of urea, and we see their appetite for urea opening up year after year,” Sowaidi told reporters.  The company is currently contemplating a proposed $610 million plant which would increase urea production to 5.6 million tons/year by 2012, up from the current rate of 3 million.  Upon completion the fertilizer unit would hold 15% of global urea production, say analysts.  Urea has the highest nitrogen content of all solid nitrogenous fertilizers in common use (46.7%).

The company overall is still reeling from recession,

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Angola plans to start exploring for onshore oil in the enclave of Cabinda sometime next month, according to state-owned oil company Sonangol. Sonangol will first carry out seismic studies in the regions of Necuto and Buco Zau to determine the existence of oil. Sonangol recently partnered with Esso to study the possibility of exploring for oil in the basin of River Kwanza, where studies had shown the existence of about 6mn barrels of oil. Earlier in the year, Sonangol said it was considering exploration in the Cassanje and Okavango river basins. Prior to the Angolan civil war, which began in 1975, Angola pumped around 80,000 bpd from the Kwanza river basin, but the war ultimately forced a halt in production.div class="blogger-post-footer"img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/3742382075154765669-512592349694270675?l=danfonds.blogspot.com' alt='' //div

Angola plans to start exploring for onshore oil in the enclave of Cabinda sometime next month, according to state-owned oil company Sonangol. Sonangol will first carry out seismic studies in the regions of Necuto and Buco Zau to determine the existence of oil. Sonangol recently partnered with Esso to study the possibility of exploring for oil in the basin of River Kwanza, where studies had shown the existence of about 6mn barrels of oil. Earlier in the year, Sonangol said it was considering exploration in the Cassanje and Okavango river basins. Prior to the Angolan civil war, which began in 1975, Angola pumped around 80,000 bpd from the Kwanza river basin, but the war ultimately forced a halt in production.div class="blogger-post-footer"img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/3742382075154765669-8419825274210719535?l=danfonds.blogspot.com' alt='' //div

UAE-based budget carrier Air Arabia, the Arab world’s largest listed carrier, announced its intentions to build a new hub in Egypt that would offer connections to Europe, Africa and the Middle East, one month after formalizing a partnership with Egypt’s Travco Group, the Middle East’s largest travel and hospitality group.  “At a time when the global aviation industry is witnessing serious challenges as a consequence of the worldwide financial crisis, we continue to move forward with our strategic expansion strategy, as demonstrated by this important announcement,” said Air Arabia Chairman Sheikh Abdullah Bin Mohammed Al Thani.

Despite the airline industry’s overall close historical correlation with broad market indices, “budget travel” represents an industry subgroup that, from an investment standpoint, can be as good a defensive play as any medical and consumer product company, brewery or tobacco firm.  Air Arabia may be a case in point, having been named the

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Dubai’s government returned to the open bond market upon a growing sense that the notoriously ‘profligate’ emirate–as at least one analyst has previously criticized it in comparison to its more steady, oil-fueled sibling Abu Dhabi–can be trusted not to default on its $80bn or so of outstanding debt. On the heels of last week’s proposed Euro Medium-Term Note (EMTN) program which seeks to raise 6.5bn, divided into four billion dollars in EMTN and 2.5-bn in Islamic bond issue, or sukuk, the government on Wednesday successfully placed nearly $2 billion in new five-year Islamic bonds–divided into both a dollar and dirham tranche–the biggest sukuk sale from the Gulf region this year. Pricing was set at 375 basis points plus/minus 10 points over mid-swaps for the dollar tranche, and with the same spread over three-
month Emirates Interbank Offered Rate, or EIBOR, used for the
 dirham

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