
You probably have heard about the riots going on in Egypt over the rising price and rationing of bread (wheat).
I only know what I read (here and here). Knowing what is really happening there is difficult as function of being far away and news accounts sometimes don’t correctly capture the essence of these things.
It is much easier to understand that part of what is causing the problem is a distortion of some sort in the price of soft and agricultural commodities. I say “some sort” because quantifying the distortion is not really the point and I doubt I am the person to do it. I think successful navigation is more important than successfully quantifying such an event.
Wild, wild price action, regardless of direction, happens every so often and the most important thing for most folks is simply to recognize something is not right and if …