“I think stocks are topping out, commodities are topping out and the dollar is making a bottom,” says Robert Prechter, president of Elliott Wave International and author of “Conquer the Crash“.

According to Yahoo Finance - Tech Ticker, Prechter also makes the seemingly counterintuitive argument that the dollar will rally because there’s so much debt, rather than being doomed because of it. “If the economy turns sour again in 2010, as he predicts, Prechter says the dollar will benefit as more dollar-denominated IOUs get called by creditors seeking to shore up their own balance sheets, as was the case in 2008.

“A sustained rally in the dollar would have devastating consequences for stocks, emerging-market assets, high-yield debt and commodities. But gold might be the exception, because it represents ‘real money’ and more people are questioning the global paper money system, Prechter says.”

Don Coxe has updated his popular webcast on November 6. You can access the recording here or from the sidebar of the Investment Postcards site (the column on the right-hand side) by clicking on Don’s photograph.

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The video clips below provide a handy summary of the reports expected on the economic, financial and corporate front around the globe during the week ahead.

US: Retailers, health care

There still are 60 S&P companies left to report earnings, but markets will kick off against a backdrop of weaker jobs and mixed data. Major retail names will release results, and there’s also key legislation from Capitol Hill.

Europe: Barclays, Vodafone, A-B InBev

As telecom operators report results, Spain will be one of the main markets investors focus on. Barclays and A-B InBev also will report third-quarter results.

Asia: Economic data front and center

Chinese economic data will be front and center in Asia. Beijing will report inflation and trade

The yield of ten-year US Treasury Notes has surged by 34 basis points since the middle of October as market participants started adopting a more upbeat outlook on the economy and shied away from safe-haven assets.

Unsurprisingly, the following comes from the minutes of the meeting of November 4 of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee of the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association: “Several members noted the graph discussing net fixed income supply in 2009 and 2010, and how issuance will ramp up dramatically in 2010. Federal Reserve purchases have taken an enormous amount of supply out of the market this past year across fixed income markets, but next year, financial markets should expect even greater issuance with no support. Such an outcome could pressure rates.” With quantitative easing set to expire during Q1, it is difficult not to see long-term rates rising, unless the economy falls

The video clips below provide a handy summary of the reports expected on the economic, financial and corporate front around the globe during the week ahead.

US: Employment, autos, rates

Jobless numbers, auto-sales figures and an FOMC meeting are due in the first week of November. Then there’s the progress of the health-care overhaul in Washington and more.

Europe: BOE meeting, UBS results

The Bank of England may take steps to buy up to 50 billion pounds more of assets on Thursday to help the UK escape recession. Earnings are due from UBS, BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, Total, Adidas and Deutsche Telekom among many others.

Asia: Carmakers in focus

Toyota, the world’s largest carmaker by sales, and

Rewind the movie to before the stock market lows of March 9: stocks down, corporate bonds down, commodities and gold down, emerging-market currencies down, safe havens in fashion, including the US dollar and government bonds. In short, risky assets closed sharply lower over the past few days as concerns mounted over the outlook for central bank policy and the sustainability of the global economic recovery, with investors only warming momentarily to the US emerging from recession as shown by the Q3 GDP report (announced on the 80th anniversary of Black Tuesday, October 29, 1929).

Cameron Brandt, senior analyst of fund tracker EPFR Global, said (via the Financial Times): “Good corporate earnings - viewed in recent weeks as fuel for a sustained recovery - are currently being regarded as ammunition for policymakers looking to close the fiscal and monetary stimulus taps.”

Adding to the economic uncertainty, Chuck Butler

Don Coxe has just updated his popular webcast, reflecting his latest outlook on (shaky) financial markets. You can access the recording here or from the sidebar of the Investment Postcards site (the column on the right-hand side) by clicking on Don’s photograph.

Did you enjoy this post? If so, click here to subscribe to updates to Investment Postcards from Cape Town by e-mail.

Bill Gross, co-founder and co-CIO of PIMCO, is to my mind one of the shrewdest money men around. His monthly newsletter, this month entitled “Midnight Candles”, therefore always makes for thought-provoking reading.

He concludes the newsletter as follows:

“Asset appreciation in US and other G-7 economies has been artificially elevated for years. In order to prevent prices sinking even lower than recent downtrends averaging 30% for stocks, homes, commercial real estate, and certain high yield bonds, central banks must keep policy rates historically low for an extended period of time. If policy rates are artificially low then bond investors should recognize that artificial buyers of notes and bonds (quantitative easing programs and Chinese currency fixing) have compressed almost all interest rates.

“But while this may support asset prices - including Treasury paper across the front end and belly of the curve, at the same time

This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• John Hussman (Hussman Funds): Rumors of the death of the credit crisis are greatly exaggerated, October 26, 2009. In recent months, I’ve strongly rejected the notion that the credit crisis has been conveniently placed behind us and that the U.S. is now in a typical post-war economic recovery (and can be approached as such from an investment perspective). This view continues to strike me as dangerous and even naïve.

• Dave Nadig (IndexUniverse.com): Nouriel Roubini - big crash coming, October 23, 2009. Roubini will be the keynote speaker at IndexUniverse’s upcoming “Inside Commodities” conference on November 4 at the New York Stock Exchange. IndexUniverse sat down with Dr. Roubini ahead of the conference to take his temperature

Don Coxe has just updated his popular webcast - good news for his followers. You can access the recording here or from the sidebar of the Investment Postcards site (the column on the right-hand side) by clicking on Don’s photograph.

Did you enjoy this post? If so, click here to subscribe to updates to Investment Postcards from Cape Town by e-mail.