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Gross: Anything but .01%

Prieur du Plessis (November 20th, 2009) Writes:

Bill Gross, co-founder and co-CIO of PIMCO, is to my mind one of the shrewdest money men around. His monthly newsletter, this month entitled “Anything but .01%”, therefore always makes for thought-provoking reading.

The following are a few excerpts from the report:

“Almost all money market accounts - totaling over $4 trillion dollars, yield close to nothing, so close to nothing that I mistakenly did a double take when reviewing my monthly portfolio statement. “Yield on cash”, read the buried line on page 15 of the report, “.01%”.

“Well now, I say to myself, this is very interesting from a number of different angles. If I was hoping to double my money, it would take approximately 6,932 years to get there at that rate! Secondly, being a savvy professional investor and all, I knew that money market funds actually earned 20 basis points or so

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Picture du Jour: Plunging dollar erodes non-US investors’ returns

Prieur du Plessis (November 18th, 2009) Writes:

With the US dollar falling down a precipice, spare a thought for non-US investors invested in US stocks and bonds.

The graph below shows the performance of US 10-year Treasury Notes since the beginning of March in both US dollar terms (red line) and euro terms (blue line). Whereas US investors are showing a poor return of -2.8% for the period, European investors are completely under water to the tune of -17.5%. For the year to date the figures are -4.8% (US dollar) and -10.5% (euro). (Although I am using the euro in this example, the same logic applies to most other non-US dollar currencies.)

candy

Source: StockCharts.com

The next graph illustrates the same principle for equities by comparing the performance of S&P 500 Index in US dollar terms

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Bernanke Rewind – The Fed Head’s same old words

Contrarian Profits (November 17th, 2009) Writes:

Chuck Butler (The Daily Reckoning): What a ride yesterday for the currencies! Gold? Well, at one point gold had shot up $24 on the day! It topped out at $1,142… The shiny metal then gave some back on profit taking, but gold holders have got to love it! Those who keep waiting for a pullback. Well, they might still be waiting when the cows come home.

Yesterday, we had a couple of Fed Heads talking, but the Big Kahuna stood out and moved the markets with his statements… Here’s the skinny…

Big Ben was giving a speech, and said, “The Fed will monitor closely the currencies, and the Fed’s policies will ensure that the dollar is strong.” Now, when he first uttered those words, the dollar got bought and the non-dollar currencies were sold… But then, a few of us had this feeling… It was a feeling that we

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Donald Coxe – Investment Recommendations (November 2009)

Prieur du Plessis (November 17th, 2009) Writes:

The November edition of Donald Coxe’s Basic Points research report (subtitled “The Power of Zero”) has just been published. His investment recommendations, as summarized in this document, are listed in the paragraphs below, but I do recommend you also read the full report at the bottom of the post. (Also note that Donald’s weekly webcasts can be accessed from the sidebar of the Investment Postcards site.)

1. Remain underweighted in US equities-as a percentage of total equities within global portfolios, and as a percentage of assets in US balanced portfolios. Underweight US bonds in global portfolios.

The Obama long-term financial projections for the US are high risk and unsustainable. Forthcoming elections-or a currency crisis-could induce some discipline, but within the OECD, the US should probably no longer be accorded top ranking for bonds and stocks.

2. Within the US market, underweight US economy-related

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Words from the (investment) wise for the week that was (November 9 – 15, 2009)

Prieur du Plessis (November 15th, 2009) Writes:

“Words from the Wise” this week comes to you in a shortened format as I do not have access to my normal research resources while on the road in Europe. Although very little commentary is provided, a full dose of excerpts from interesting news items and quotes from market commentators is included.

While the Dow Jones Industrial Index and other benchmark indices reached 52-week highs last week and pleased Wall Street, the cartoonists reminded us that worrisome economic issues remained in Main Street …

15-11-09-01

Source: Jeff Parker, Comics.com, November 11, 2009.

The past week’s performance of the major asset classes is summarized by the chart below - a mixed bag, so to speak, with government bonds, equities, corporate bonds and gold closing the week in positive territory.

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Don Coxe webcast – updated (November 13, 2009)

Prieur du Plessis (November 14th, 2009) Writes:

Don Coxe has just updated his popular webcast - good news for his followers. You can access the recording here or from the sidebar of the Investment Postcards site (the column on the right-hand side) by clicking on Don’s photograph.

Did you enjoy this post? If so, click here to subscribe to updates to Investment Postcards from Cape Town by e-mail.

Prieur’s readings (November 9, 2009)

Prieur du Plessis (November 9th, 2009) Writes:

This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• Business Intelligence: Marc Faber has short term concerns about commodities, says gold may drop to US$800, November 6, 2009. Marc Faber the Swiss fund manager and Gloom Boom & Doom editor said he has some short-term concerns about commodity prices including gold. He is also reluctant to invest in bonds.

• Aline van Duyn (Financial Times): Why dollar carry trade faces hidden dangers, November 7, 2009. Most investors agree that it is out there. What is less clear is how big it is, or how worried investors should be about it. The “it” in question is the dollar carry trade. This is an investment strategy that has recently been extremely profitable and as a result has become increasingly popular.

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Words from the (investment) wise for the week that was (November 2 – 8, 2009)

Prieur du Plessis (November 8th, 2009) Writes:

“Words from the Wise” this week comes to you in a shortened format as I am about to leave Cape Town for a visit to the colder environs of Switzerland and Slovenia. Although reduced commentary is provided, a full dose of excerpts from interesting news items and quotes from market commentators is included. Blog posting will be slow (and totally absent on some days) while I am on the road. The normal blogging service will be resumed on my return to Cape Town on November 16.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained its extraordinarily accommodative monetary policy following its meeting on Wednesday. The communiqué had no surprises and said that the committee expected to keep the fed funds rate target in the 0-0.25% range “for an extended period”. As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) also kept interest rates unchanged

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Bob Prechter: Stocks, commodities topping; dollar set for major rally

Prieur du Plessis (November 7th, 2009) Writes:

“I think stocks are topping out, commodities are topping out and the dollar is making a bottom,” says Robert Prechter, president of Elliott Wave International and author of “Conquer the Crash“.

According to Yahoo Finance - Tech Ticker, Prechter also makes the seemingly counterintuitive argument that the dollar will rally because there’s so much debt, rather than being doomed because of it. “If the economy turns sour again in 2010, as he predicts, Prechter says the dollar will benefit as more dollar-denominated IOUs get called by creditors seeking to shore up their own balance sheets, as was the case in 2008.

“A sustained rally in the dollar would have devastating consequences for stocks, emerging-market assets, high-yield debt and commodities. But gold might be the exception, because it represents ‘real money’ and more people are questioning the global paper money system, Prechter says.”

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Don Coxe webcast – updated (November 6, 2009)

Prieur du Plessis (November 7th, 2009) Writes:

Don Coxe has updated his popular webcast on November 6. You can access the recording here or from the sidebar of the Investment Postcards site (the column on the right-hand side) by clicking on Don’s photograph.

Did you enjoy this post? If so, click here to subscribe to updates to Investment Postcards from Cape Town by e-mail.


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