Apropos the post on evaluating the impact of the stimulus, here is graphical depiction of what IHS Global Insight, Macroeconomic Advisers, and Moody's predicted under the counterfactual of no stimulus against the w/stimulus outlook (from NYT).

Source: J. Calmes and M. Cooper, "New Consensus Sees Stimulus Package as Worthy Step," NYT (Nov. 21, 2009).

It’s a lot more action on Capital Hill than on Wall Street friday. The stock market slides in to a weak ending with a light headwind from the dollar, as the investors park their portfolios in safe havens. But in Washington it’s full storm around treasury secretary Timothy Geithner and his FED-friends, while senator Ted Kaufman [...]

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This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• Jim Jubak (MSN Money): 3-step strategy for a twitchy market, November 19, 2009. Many investors are deeply suspicious of the 60% run-up in stocks this year and are itching to sell. But then what? Here’s how to take some gains now while setting up a profitable 2010.

• Randall Forsyth (Barron’s): Treasury yield plunge sends warning, November 20, 2009. Collapse in note yields suggests economic distress will keep Fed on hold well into 2010 or beyond.

• Gordon Chang (Forbes): When in doubt, blame Bernanke, November 19, 2009. According to Liu Mingkang, China’s chief bank regulator, low American interest rates and the falling dollar have “seriously affected global asset prices, fueled speculation in stock and property markets

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This podcast features an excellent interview by FT’s David Stevenson with Dylan Grice, strategist of Société Générale. Dylan, who has been described as “the Robin to Albert Edward’s Batman”, discusses stock market bubbles, China and geo-politics.

Click here for the interview (but be warned that the running time is 44 minutes).

Source: David Stevenson, Financial Times, November 6, 2009.

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