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Baselines, Counterfactuals and the Stimulus

Menzie Chinn Writes:

Apropos the post on evaluating the impact of the stimulus, here is graphical depiction of what IHS Global Insight, Macroeconomic Advisers, and Moody's predicted under the counterfactual of no stimulus against the w/stimulus outlook (from NYT).

globalinsight_MAD_Moodys.jpg Source: J. Calmes and M. Cooper, "New Consensus Sees Stimulus Package as Worthy Step," NYT (Nov. 21, 2009).
Tags for this Post:
Economics, Investing Lessons, Moody's

Wall Street. “Temporary Parked”

Frode Haukenes Writes:
It’s a lot more action on Capital Hill than on Wall Street friday. The stock market slides in to a weak ending with a light headwind from the dollar, as the investors park their portfolios in safe havens. But in Washington it’s full storm around treasury secretary Timothy Geithner and his FED-friends, while senator Ted Kaufman [...]

Saturday Success Story – Barry, Indiana

Trading School Writes:

At MarketClub, our mission is to help you become a better trader. Our passion is creating superior trading tools to help you achieve your goals—no matter which way the markets move—we promise objective and unbiased recommendations not available from brokers.

Here’s great news from a member…

“I have really enjoyed the latest version of MarketClub. Being able to see the monthly, weekly, and daily trends on one screen is a definite improvement. It is apparent, you took the time to make this a better trading tool. I also love the three studies available with the charts. This makes my trading decisions much easier, so much so, I dropped another timing service and use MarketClub exclusively.” ~ Barry M., Indiana

To send your own success story, please email blog@ino.com. We wish all of our members the best and we look forward to hearing your success story.

...

Prieur’s readings (November 21, 2009)

Prieur du Plessis Writes:

This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• Jim Jubak (MSN Money): 3-step strategy for a twitchy market, November 19, 2009. Many investors are deeply suspicious of the 60% run-up in stocks this year and are itching to sell. But then what? Here’s how to take some gains now while setting up a profitable 2010.

• Randall Forsyth (Barron’s): Treasury yield plunge sends warning, November 20, 2009. Collapse in note yields suggests economic distress will keep Fed on hold well into 2010 or beyond.

• Gordon Chang (Forbes): When in doubt, blame Bernanke, November 19, 2009. According to Liu Mingkang, China’s chief bank regulator, low American interest rates and the falling dollar have “seriously affected global asset prices, fueled speculation in stock and property markets

...

The lie of the investment land, according to Dylan Grice

Prieur du Plessis Writes:

This podcast features an excellent interview by FT’s David Stevenson with Dylan Grice, strategist of Société Générale. Dylan, who has been described as “the Robin to Albert Edward’s Batman”, discusses stock market bubbles, China and geo-politics.

Click here for the interview (but be warned that the running time is 44 minutes).

Source: David Stevenson, Financial Times, November 6, 2009.

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